The occasional obligatory investment post
Some personal finance bloggers write excellent, deeply incisive posts about investing in stocks. I'm not one of them.
I've been investing since 1996 via mutual funds plus a few ill-chosen tech stocks that I bought during the tech boom in 1998 or 1999 and keep around to remind me of what happens to most people who speculate. The vast majority of my investments are in funds that I buy through my 401(k), but I also have both IRA and taxable mutual funds.
I didn't study business for my master's degrees, but I had the opportunity to take enough business school courses to convince me of a few basic rules of investing:
1. By the time information hits the press, it's already been factored into stock price.
2. Don't invest money you can't afford to lose. In other words, your investments should match your risk profile: If you can't stand the prospect of losing a big chunk of change, leave the stock market alone.
3. Churning your investments through frequent buying and selling is a good way to rack up transaction fees as well as risk missing huge growth opportunities.
4. Be careful when engaging professional advisors. Their self-interest may not be the same as yours.
My 401(k) portfolio consists of a mix of large, medium, small, international, and mixed stock/bond funds. Outside of my 401(k), I have a mix of funds that also fall into the same categories (approximately half are actively managed and the other half are index funds), including one actively managed stinker that has been both very, very good and very, very bad to me. I'm keeping an eye on that one with a mind to pull the plug on it when I rebalance my portfolio in December.
I took a lot of time off of investing outside of my 401(k) and IRA while I was aggressively paying down the mortgage, and then I took most of last year off as well because I wanted to build up my cash position in the face of a shaky job situation. I took a lot of flak for that approach from friends and family who insisted that I was missing out on huuuuuuuuge market gains in favor of paying off a low-interest debt and stocking up too much cash. As it turned out, my return on investment from paying off the mortgage was higher than my market return would have been during that period. In addition, I have enough cash now to sleep at night in the face of more layoffs, and I really can't put a price on that peace of mind.
Going forward, now that the mortgage and emergency fund goals are fully taken care of, I'm going back to swim with the sharks. I already funded my IRA for the year, so most of my post-401(k) savings money for the remainder of 2010 is going to shore up my assets in the taxable funds department using the dollar cost averaging approach. Dollar cost averaging is simple: Twice a month, I'm dumping money into my funds without trying to time the market.
Dollar cost averaging is historically touted as the best way to balance out risk related to market volatility because it results in buying more shares when the price is low and fewer when the price is high. I'm not fully convinced it works as described because of an argument made in a variety of sources, including this article, which notes that if the market continues trending up over time, dollar cost averaging actually works out to being more expensive than lump sum investing.
So, why would I do it if it costs more?
Look up at rule #1: By the time I know about something that will impact stock prices, it's already been factored into the price. If I buy or sell reactively based on what I read in the news and without knowing in detail what's in my mutual funds and what's going through my mutual fund managers' heads, I'm making gut-level decisions based on no real knowledge, and according to rule #3, that's likely to cost me money.
In short, I don't have the knowledge or resources to make fully informed investment decisions, so dollar cost averaging helps protect me from costly mistakes.
Do you believe in dollar cost averaging? Why or why not? If not, what does your personal investment strategy look like?
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